Category: Democracy

Un royaume en eaux troubles : les crises politico-sécuritaires oubliées du Lesotho

On By Thibaud KurtzIn Politics, Democracy, Afrique australe, Politique, Sécurité, SecurityLeave a comment

Crédit d’illustration, avril 2021 : Kadiy

Voici un résumé de la note préparée par le fondateur d’Horizon Africa, Thibaud Kurtz, publiée par l’institut français des relations internationales, l’Ifri :

https://www.ifri.org/fr/publications/notes-de-lifri/un-royaume-eaux-troubles-crises-politico-securitaires-oubliees-lesotho

Le Lesotho est un royaume montagnard enclavé au sein de l’Afrique du Sud pour laquelle il constitue un réservoir d’eau et de main-d’œuvre. Ce royaume à la création tourmentée est structurellement en crise politique et sécuritaire. Depuis 1993 et le retour au multipartisme, toutes les élections ont nécessité une médiation régionale à l’exception de celle de 2002. Depuis 2012 et la première coalition gouvernementale dans l’histoire du pays, le Lesotho a connu trois élections, quatre changements de Premier ministre, deux suspensions du Parlement, l’assassinat de deux chefs d’états-majors de l’armée et une médiation continue de la Communauté de développement de l’Afrique australe (SADC[1]) depuis 2014.

Une nouvelle crise gouvernementale s’ouvre au Lesotho en avril 2021, un an après la précédente ayant conduit au départ du Premier ministre, Thomas Thabane, accusé d’être impliqué dans l’assassinat de son épouse en 2017. La SADC est intervenue pour négocier son départ. T. Thabane avait été remplacé par son ministre des Finances, Moeketsi Majoro, à la tête d’une coalition politique fragile dont on pressentait les difficultés à se maintenir jusqu’en 2022, date des prochaines élections. Cette énième crise intervient dans un contexte de perte de confiance entre l’élite politique et une majorité d’habitants qui ne croit plus à la démocratie électorale.

Cette note examine les facteurs structurels et conjoncturels d’instabilité du Lesotho ainsi que les pistes de résolution de crises actuellement explorées.

[1]. Communauté de développement de l’Afrique australe plus connue sous son acronyme anglais SADC pour Southern African Development Community.

« From Lesotho, from Botswana, from Swaziland,
From all the hinterland of Southern and Central Africa.
This train carries young and old, African men
Who are conscripted to come and work on contract
In the golden mineral mines of Johannesburg »

Paroles de Stimela (Coal Train), 1974, du chanteur et trompettiste sud-africain Hugh Masekela

Abstract in English:

Lesotho is a landlocked mountain kingdom encased in South Africa for which it is a reservoir of water and labor. This kingdom of tormented creation is in a structural political and security crisis. Since 1993 and the return to multiparty politics, all elections, except that of 2002, needed regional mediation. Since the first government coalition in the country’s history in 2002, Lesotho knew three elections, four changes of prime minister, two suspensions of parliament, the assassination of two army chiefs of staff and continued mediation by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) since 2014.

A new political crisis broke out in April 2021, a year after the previous one leading to the departure of Prime Minister Thomas Thabane, accused of being involved in the assassination of his wife in 2017. SADC intervened to negotiate his departure. T. Thabane was then replaced by his Minister of Finance, Moeketsi Majoro, at the head of a fragile political coalition suspected to hardly be maintained until 2022, date of next elections. This umpteenth crisis comes against a backdrop of loss of confidence between the political elite and a majority of residents who no longer believe in electoral democracy.

This note examines the structural and cyclical factors of instability in Lesotho as well as the approaches of crisis resolution currently being explored.

Preventing Electoral Violence

On By Thibaud KurtzIn DemocracyLeave a comment

Horizon Africa founder, Thibaud Kurtz, co-edited and contributed to a handbook on preventing and mitigating electoral violence based on 14 countries in Southern Africa.

The document was prepared under the auspices of the foundation European Centre for Electoral Support (ECES), the Electoral Support Network in Southern Africa (ESN-SA) with a funding from the European Union and ECES.

PEV SADC.jpeg

It was presented at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in August 2018 :

http://www.eces.eu/posts/massachusetts-institute-of-technology-mit-workshop

The document is available here :

Click to access Preventing%20and%20Mitigating%20Electoral%20Conflict%20and%20Violence.pdf

Zimbabwe et l’après Mugabe : 100 jours, 6 mois et 1 an plus tard

On By Thibaud KurtzIn Democracy, Elections, PolitiqueLeave a comment

Le 18 mars 2018, le fondateur d’Horizon Africa a participé à un débat sur la radio Africa n°1 sur les 100 jours du nouveau président zimbabwéen : Emmerson Mnangagwa.

Le lien vers l’émission radio est ici. Le podcast n’est malheureusement plus disponible.

Le 13 juin 2018, le fondateur d’Horizon Africa a participé à un nouveau débat sur la radio Africa n°1 sur la préparation des premières élections de l’après Mugabe au Zimbabwe, le 30 juillet 2018.

Le lien vers l’émission radio est ici. Le podcast n’est malheureusement plus disponible.

Le 21 novembre 2018, le fondateur d’Horizon Africa, est revenu pour RFi sur la première année sans Mugabe au pouvoir au Zimbabwe.

Le lien vers l’article  est ici. Il est toujours actif.

SADC et médiations

On By Thibaud KurtzIn Afrique australe, Democracy, ElectionsLeave a comment

IFRI cou

Voici un résumé de la note préparée par le fondateur d’Horizon Africa, Thibaud Kurtz, publiée par l’IFRI :

Efficacité des médiations de la Communauté de développement de l’Afrique australe (SADC). Bilan et leçons (2012-2017).

La Communauté de développement de l’Afrique australe (plus connue sous son acronyme anglais « SADC ») compte parmi ses membres plusieurs puissances africaines, dont l’Afrique du Sud et l’Angola.

L’Afrique australe est souvent considérée comme la région la plus stable du continent africain, la SADC a cependant mené depuis 2012 des médiations officielles dans quatre de ses États membres confrontés à des crises internes : le Lesotho, le Zimbabwe, Madagascar et la République démocratique du Congo (RDC). Elle est également intervenue de manière plus discrète au Malawi et au Mozambique. Cette note analyse les conditions de ces interventions et en mesure l’efficacité très relative, ainsi que les efforts constants d’amélioration poursuivis par l’organisation. Elle souligne également la variété des interventions – essentiellement centrées sur une volonté de maintenir la stabilité et de limiter les influences extérieures – et le rôle prépondérant des chefs d’État en matière décisionnelle.

La note est disponible ici :

Click to access kurtz_mediations_sadc_2018.pdf

An African Lesson for Trump – Of Acknowledging Electoral Results

On By Thibaud KurtzIn Democracy, Elections, PoliticsLeave a comment

On October 19, 2016, Donald Trump at the third and last debate before the USA presidential election, refused to com
mit to acknowledge and respect the official results of these elections. When asked about it by the moderator, the Republican nominee said “I will look at it at the time”. Trump’s statement is extraordinary in the US context and sound sore-losingish. One needs good reasons and strong arguments to demonstrate that an electoral process is flawed.

It is a tradition to accept the result of the election in the USA among the major parties’ candidates. It has become obvious to the point that many political observers and actors have been shocked by Donald Trump’s statement. Extremely interesting, as on December 13, 2000, Al Gore, the then Democrat candidate, eventually conceded presidential election. Article here and video statement there.

code-of-conduct_17319287_baa5f2c7d2f4ae7de458ed4efcd1c780479472edOn another side of the Earth, one can read and hear often news about disputed elections with candidates refusing to acknowledge defeat. The aim of this site is also to talk about all the elections and the other things that work well on that continent and not just the “bad” things. Many African countries have been creative regarding how to best deal with this issue and make the electoral processes more acceptable and credible.

In 1998, the newly-freed-from-Apartheid South Africa adopted an electoral act that included an “Electoral Code of Conduct” aiming at creating conditions that are conducive to free and fair elections. This code is legally binding. It puts candidates at risk of being condemned by a tribunal if they do not accept the results or refuse to challenge them in court.

Among the pillar of this code, here is the key part for today’s talk: “Registered parties and candidates must publicly condemn any action that may undermine the free and fair conduct of elections (Code 1998, 9(1)(b)). Parties and candidates must accept the results of an election or challenge those results in court (Code 1998, 4(2))”.

The African Union has then developed a Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. It was adopted in 2007 – the year of the terrible electoral crisis in Kenya. By October 2016, 10 states have ratified it. In its article 17, it states that:

“Ensure that there is a binding code of conduct governing legally recognized political stakeholders, government and other political actors prior, during and after elections. The code shall include a commitment by political stakeholders to accept the results of the election or challenge them in through exclusively legal channels”.

Adopting a code does not guarantee to get peaceful elections but it helps especially if this is done through a general a credible and transparent process and where courts can be trusted.

We will keep on looking at shortcomings of the US electoral system and other lessons to learn from African examples.

Focus on African national elections in 2016

On By Thibaud KurtzIn Democracy, Elections2 Comments

4 elections took place in August-October. 4 more are to take place before 2017 and 1 has been postponed.elections-2016-_13262802_943132f83ce4fb6b75b36ae65ab14ba4986aa860

 

 For a full infographic experience click here.

  • Zambia

zambia-electoral-results-2016Zambian voted to elect their president on August 11. The incumbent Edgar Lungu was officially re-elected with 50.35% in the first round. His challenger, Hakainde Hichilema (47.63%) contested the results. Both the Constitutional and the Supreme courts rejected his application. Sources reported that he was arrested on October 5 and charged with “seditious practices” and “unlawful assembly”. He was released the day after. The electoral results show an almost perfect geographical divide.  

Source : a well documented wikipedia page, based on the Zambian electoral commission.

  • Gabon

The Presidential election took place on August 27. The announcement of the results was delayed and eventually took place on August 31. The official results were contested in the streets and then in court. On September 24, the Constitutional Court validated the victory of incumbent President, Ali Bongo, by less than 6000 votes. International observers could not observe the compilation of results. 

  • Seychelles

The opposition coalition, LDS, won the Parliamentary elections organised early September. As a consequence of these results, James Michel, who was re-elected President in December 2015 with less than 200 votes, said he would stand down by October 16, 2016. In Seychelles, the President is both Head of State and Government. He appoints Cabinet members but they have to be approved by majority in Parliament. His Vice-President is to replace him and to remain President for the rest of the term, until 2020.

  • Cape Verde

President Jorge Carlos Fonseca won a second term on October 2nd. The preliminary results gave him nearly 75% of the votes.

Elections left to happen in 2016

  • Morocco

The parliamentary elections are due on October 7, 2016. The electoral lists were completed in August and the official campaign is on.

  • Ghana

Ghanaians are expected to vote on December 7, 2016 to elect their MPs and their President. A second round is planned for the Presidential election on December 28, 2016.

  • Gambia

The Presidential election is due on December 1st, 2016.

  • Côte d’Ivoire

The Parliamentary elections are due in December 2016.

Postponed

  • Democratic Republic of Congo

The parliamentary and presidential elections were due in November this year. Different sources report that the President of the National Independent Electoral Commission, Mr Corneille Nangaa, announced on October 1st at a meeting of the “National Dialogue” in Kinshasa, that it would take 504 days to organize the presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections from July 31st, 2017, pushing the elections to November 2018. There is political tension around the dates.