Elections

Un point sur les élections de 2016 – Novembre

Nous vous proposons un suivi factuel des 3 élections organisées en septembre/octobre et de la préparation des 3 élections prévues pour décembre.

elections-2016-_13262802_e998143d5662218a72b47d0fbad7d6f21e68e31b

Pour une expérience graphique complète, cliquez ici.

  • Seychelles

Après la victoire de l’ex-opposition en septembre aux législatives de septembre, James Michel, le désormais ex-président, avait promis de laisser la place le 16 octobre 2016. Chose faite. Son ancien vice-président, Danny Faure, est donc président. Son mandat devrait courir jusqu’en 2020.

  • Cap-Vert

Le président Jorge Carlos Fonseca a été réélu un second mandat le 2 octobre avec 74% des voix.

  • Maroc

Les élections parlementaires ont été organisées le 7 octobre 2016. Le parti de la justice et du développement (PJD) a remporté 125 sièges sur 395. Le PJD doit maintenant former une coalition gouvernementale.

Les élections restantes pour 2016

  • Gambie

L’élection gambienne est prévue pour le 1er décembre 2016.

  • Ghana

Les ghanéens doivent voter le 7 décembre pour élire leurs députés et leur président. Un second tour est prévu, uniquement pour la présidentielle, le 28 décembre 2016

  • Côte d’Ivoire

Les élections parlementaires ont été fixées au 18 décembre.

Reportées

  • République démocratique du Congo (RDC)

Les élections parlementaires et présidentielles étaient prévues pour la fin 2016 mais elles ont été reportées en octobre pour 2018.

  • Elections prévues pour 2017

Il y a 8 élections nationales prévues l’année prochaine : au Somaliland, Kenya, Sénégal, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Liberia, Gambie et en Algérie.

Nous reviendrons début 2017 pour un dernier rapport factuel sur les élections de 2016.

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Elections

An update on the 2016 elections – November

We have news about 3 elections that took place in September-October and the 3 more that are to take place in December. 8 elections are planned for 2017.

elections-2016-_13262802_f660369e94ba62bc2d68b41feac2ebe19d9df031

For a full infographic experience click here.

  • Seychelles

After the victory of the then-opposition in September, James Michel, the then-President, had promised to stand down on October 16, 2016. He did. His former Vice-President, Dany Faure has become the new President. He should remain so for the rest of the term, until 2020.

  • Cape-Verde

The final results of the October 2nd elections gave the re-elected President Jorge Carlos Fonseca 74% of the votes.

  • Morocco

The parliamentary elections were held on October 7, 2016. The Justice and Development Party (PJD) led the results and won 125 seats out of 395. The PJD is expected to form a coalition.

Elections left to happen in 2016

  • Gambia

The Presidential election is due on December 1st, 2016.

  • Ghana

Ghanaians are expected to vote on December 7, 2016 to elect their MPs and their President. A second round is planned for the Presidential election on December 28, 2016.

  • Côte d’Ivoire

The date of the Parliamentary elections has been announced. They are due on December 18,2016.

Postponed

  • Democratic Republic of Congo

The elections are expected in 2018.

  • Elections due in 2017

There are 8 national elections planned for next year in Somaliland, Kenya, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Liberia, Gambia and Algeria.

We will get back to you with a factual report of the 2016 elections early 2017.

 

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Commerce/Economie, Trade/Economics

Petit état des lieux de l’économie africaine en 2016

  • Un ralentissement global de l’économie en Afrique

Fin 2015, la croissance continentale était attendue à 3% pour 2016. Un an plus tard, elle ne devrait être que de 1,6%. Le taux le plus bas depuis 20 ans, soit avant la ruée chinoise vers les matières premières au début des années 2000. La baisse cette année est notamment due aux problèmes rencontrés par la platine pour l’Afrique du Sud et la baisse du prix du baril de pétrole pour le Nigéria, l’Angola, L’Algérie et l’Egypte. Ceux qu’on surnomme parfois les lions africains étaient bien fatigués.

volume-pib-africain

Chiffres de 2015. Banque mondiale. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf

  • Des économies africaines parmi les plus dynamiques au monde

Néanmoins, certaines des économies parmi les plus dynamiques au monde sont en Afrique avec un taux de croissance supérieur à 6% : Ethiopie, Rwanda, Tanzanie, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire et Sénégal.

En parallèle de ces chiffres contradictoires, la Banque mondiale a publié son rapport annuel sur la facilité de faire des affaires et pour 2016 l’Afrique place 7 pays dans le top 100. Le rapport complet est disponible ici.

facilite

Classement 2016. Banque mondiale. http://francais.doingbusiness.org/rankings

  • Un continent d’innovation

Au-delà de la bataille des chiffres concernant les classes moyennes, n’importe quelle personne ayant voyagé dans plusieurs pays africains et sur plusieurs années pourra témoigner de l’apparition de ces classes et de la vitalité de certains secteurs économiques comme les nouvelles technologies. On estime à 70% le nombre d’Africains possédant un téléphone portable, soit près de 700 millions de personnes. Le paiement mobile, inventé au début des années 2000 au Kenya se répand comme le feu dans la brousse. Au début de 2016, on estimait à 62 millions le nombre de comptes mobiles actifs en Afrique soit 3 fois plus qu’en Asie. Ce système permet à des millions d’Africains exclus du système bancaire traditionnel d’avoir un compte pour payer et recevoir de l’argent. Il est difficile d’obtenir des chiffres fiables sur les montants totaux des transactions annuels mais on serait passé de 3 milliards de dollars US en 2010 à plus de 10 milliards en 2014.

  • Un développement humain toujours limité

Cependant, ces chiffres plutôt positifs en termes économiques, tardent à se traduire en améliorations des conditions de vie pour la majorité des africains. Cette année encore, le Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement (PNUD) ne classe aucun pays africain dans le top 50 de l’Indice du Développement Humain (IDH). Le premier pays est Maurice, qui arrive 64e. Le classement est ici.

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Service

Activités de conseils/Advisory Activities

Français (english version available below)

Vous représentez un think tank, une université, une ONG, une agence de conseil, une organisation officielle, une entreprise. Vous êtes un particulier.

Vous vous intéressez à l’Afrique et vous souhaitez disposer d’une analyse unique, d’une présentation, d’une étude, d’un rapport ou d’un conseil stratégique.

Vous souhaitez être mis en contact avec des personnes de confiance sur le continent dans votre domaine d’activité.

Nous avons des compétences et des champs d’expertise pour vous.

comperences-expertise-franc%cc%a7ais

Contactez nous pour en savoir plus.

Thibaud Kurtz – Consultant indépendant

consultant@horizonafrica.co

Tel: +33 (0) 7 82 51 84 82

Nantes, France


English

Your represent a think tank, a university, an ONG, a consultancy, an official organisation, a company. You are an individual.

You are interested in Africa and you wish to have a unique analysis, a presentation, a study, a report or strategic advice.

You want to be put in touch with trustworhty people on the African continent in your fied of activitiies.

We have competences and expertise for you.

compenteces-expertise-english

Contact us to know more.

Thibaud Kurtz – Free lance consultant

consultant@horizonafrica.co

Tel: +33 (0) 7 82 51 84 82

Nantes, France

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Democracy, Elections, Politics

An African Lesson for Trump – Of Acknowledging Electoral Results

On October 19, 2016, Donald Trump at the third and last debate before the USA presidential election, refused to com
mit to acknowledge and respect the official results of these elections. When asked about it by the moderator, the Republican nominee said “I will look at it at the time”. Trump’s statement is extraordinary in the US context and sound sore-losingish. One needs good reasons and strong arguments to demonstrate that an electoral process is flawed.

It is a tradition to accept the result of the election in the USA among the major parties’ candidates. It has become obvious to the point that many political observers and actors have been shocked by Donald Trump’s statement. Extremely interesting, as on December 13, 2000, Al Gore, the then Democrat candidate, eventually conceded presidential election. Article here and video statement there.

code-of-conduct_17319287_baa5f2c7d2f4ae7de458ed4efcd1c780479472edOn another side of the Earth, one can read and hear often news about disputed elections with candidates refusing to acknowledge defeat. The aim of this site is also to talk about all the elections and the other things that work well on that continent and not just the “bad” things. Many African countries have been creative regarding how to best deal with this issue and make the electoral processes more acceptable and credible.

In 1998, the newly-freed-from-Apartheid South Africa adopted an electoral act that included an “Electoral Code of Conduct” aiming at creating conditions that are conducive to free and fair elections. This code is legally binding. It puts candidates at risk of being condemned by a tribunal if they do not accept the results or refuse to challenge them in court.

Among the pillar of this code, here is the key part for today’s talk: “Registered parties and candidates must publicly condemn any action that may undermine the free and fair conduct of elections (Code 1998, 9(1)(b)). Parties and candidates must accept the results of an election or challenge those results in court (Code 1998, 4(2))”.

The African Union has then developed a Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance. It was adopted in 2007 – the year of the terrible electoral crisis in Kenya. By October 2016, 10 states have ratified it. In its article 17, it states that:

Ensure that there is a binding code of conduct governing legally recognized political stakeholders, government and other political actors prior, during and after elections. The code shall include a commitment by political stakeholders to accept the results of the election or challenge them in through exclusively legal channels”.

Adopting a code does not guarantee to get peaceful elections but it helps especially if this is done through a general a credible and transparent process and where courts can be trusted.

We will keep on looking at shortcomings of the US electoral system and other lessons to learn from African examples.

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Democracy, Elections

Focus on African national elections in 2016

4 elections took place in August-October. 4 more are to take place before 2017 and 1 has been postponed.elections-2016-_13262802_943132f83ce4fb6b75b36ae65ab14ba4986aa860

 

 For a full infographic experience click here.

  • Zambia

zambia-electoral-results-2016Zambian voted to elect their president on August 11. The incumbent Edgar Lungu was officially re-elected with 50.35% in the first round. His challenger, Hakainde Hichilema (47.63%) contested the results. Both the Constitutional and the Supreme courts rejected his application. Sources reported that he was arrested on October 5 and charged with “seditious practices” and “unlawful assembly”. He was released the day after. The electoral results show an almost perfect geographical divide.  

Source : a well documented wikipedia page, based on the Zambian electoral commission.

  • Gabon

The Presidential election took place on August 27. The announcement of the results was delayed and eventually took place on August 31. The official results were contested in the streets and then in court. On September 24, the Constitutional Court validated the victory of incumbent President, Ali Bongo, by less than 6000 votes. International observers could not observe the compilation of results. 

  • Seychelles

The opposition coalition, LDS, won the Parliamentary elections organised early September. As a consequence of these results, James Michel, who was re-elected President in December 2015 with less than 200 votes, said he would stand down by October 16, 2016. In Seychelles, the President is both Head of State and Government. He appoints Cabinet members but they have to be approved by majority in Parliament. His Vice-President is to replace him and to remain President for the rest of the term, until 2020.

  • Cape Verde

President Jorge Carlos Fonseca won a second term on October 2nd. The preliminary results gave him nearly 75% of the votes.

Elections left to happen in 2016

  • Morocco

The parliamentary elections are due on October 7, 2016. The electoral lists were completed in August and the official campaign is on.

  • Ghana

Ghanaians are expected to vote on December 7, 2016 to elect their MPs and their President. A second round is planned for the Presidential election on December 28, 2016.

  • Gambia

The Presidential election is due on December 1st, 2016.

  • Côte d’Ivoire

The Parliamentary elections are due in December 2016.

Postponed

  • Democratic Republic of Congo

The parliamentary and presidential elections were due in November this year. Different sources report that the President of the National Independent Electoral Commission, Mr Corneille Nangaa, announced on October 1st at a meeting of the “National Dialogue” in Kinshasa, that it would take 504 days to organize the presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections from July 31st, 2017, pushing the elections to November 2018. There is political tension around the dates.

 

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Action, Health

Ebola and its potential natural niche, a survival guide for countries

 

Summary: Ebola is at home in Africa. 22 countries are potential natural hosts and a new outbreak could start there. This article looks at these countries and offers some recommendations on how to handle this risk. For a full experience of the graph included in the text, click here.

  • Bye, bye Ebola?

The news comes and goes in the fight against Ebola in Western Africa. It seems that since mid-2015, every week the victory against the disease is announced, preceding

another announce of a new case. When Sierra Leone was declared officially Ebola free on 7 November 2015, the news was celebrated with the song “Bye bye Ebola” by Block Jones featuring Freetown Uncut and its feel-good music video clip. The picture illustrating this article is a screen capture from this clip.

  • The Ebola crisis in Western Africa (2013-2016…ongoing?): unprepared countries

At the beginning of 2014, the news about Ebola and Western Africa were not good, not good at all. Thousands of kilometres away from what we thought was its natural niche – in Central Africa – Ebola hit hard 3 unprepared countries. It took months for them and external actors to start acting according to the actual threat. Close to 10,000 men and women died in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The disease spread across Africa and the rest of the world with cases in Nigeria, Mali and the USA, among others. There were cases of media-fuelled panic in Western countries. There is a still a debate around the human, social and economic costs of the Ebola outbreak of 2014. Some 8,000 kms down South, a Botswana Tourism Board top staff declared that due to fears of Ebola, tourism was hit hard too in this Southern African state. It seemed that people from Europe and the US – potential tourists to Botswana – are inclined to see Africa as one united territory.

  • In Africa Football is stronger than the fear of Ebola

In Africa itself, Ebola had some interesting collateral damage. In September 2014, while a case had been confirmed in Senegal, Botswana hosted the Western African State national football team for a qualifying game to the African Cup Of Nations. The Botswana authorities allowed the Senegalese team to enter its territory, while they banned travel to and from the DRC blocking copper trucks from Katanga to drive through Botswana towards South Africa. This ban prevented also diplomats from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) based in Botswana to meet in Kinshasa, DRC, to discuss peace and security matters. Some Ebola cases were reported and confirmed in the Equatorial Province – more than 2,000 Km from the Katanga Province and around 1,000 Km from Kinshasa. The WHO declared that the Congolese outbreak was unrelated to the one in Western Africa.

  • A huge impact

The impact in the three main Ebola-hit countries – Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia – has been huge: socially, humanly and economically. Their families will miss the deceased. Schools were closed.

The main reason for the disease to have time to hit these countries so hard is that it took close to 3 months to officially identify Ebola as the cause of the outbreak. The lack of readiness and capacities of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia helped the disease to spread. Since its identification in 1976, Ebola outbreaks and its different stains only took place in Central Africa, mostly in the DR Congo. It seems logical to be surprised, thousands of kilometres from Central Africa to expect such a deadly disease to appear there. DRC manages to handle Ebola outbreak quite well due to its experience – they do not lose months to think that it could be Ebola and let the disease spread – and its poor infrastructure network in a gigantic country make it easier to set up an efficient quarantine zone.

The Western African outbreak is likely to have started in Guinea with a zoonotic transmission to a human and then spreading among humans in the area of Guéckédou close to where Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone meet.

EbolaGuinea

This a map published for the French Press Agency (AFP) at the beginning of 2014.

  • Back to basics: the first case of transmission to the human

The transmission of a disease from a host animal to a human is entitled “a zoonotic transmission”. The natural reservoir host of Ebola virus remains unknown but there are some suspects. In a study published last year, some Oxford scientists (and others) mapped 22 African countries where there is an environmental context for zoonotic transmission of Ebola. Let’s call that group the Group of 22.

There are 7 countries with recorded cases of zoonotic transmission: Congo, DR Congo, Gabon, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, South Sudan and Uganda. Let’s call that group the Group of 7.

According to this study there are 15 African countries zoonotic transmission recorded yet: Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic (CAR), Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Angola, Tanzania, Togo, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar and Malawi. Let’s call that group the Group of 15.

  • Some recommendations

In order to prevent those 22 countries to have a first undetected case for weeks or months allowing Ebola to spread, here are a couple of recommendations.

  • What: to develop a preventive strategy and an action plan to cope with the outbreak and train all medical officers in the countries. Who: the health authorities of these 15 countries.
  • What: to develop an African preventive strategy and an action plan and sensitize African national health authorities. Who: the African Union (AU) with the support of the African bureau of the World Health Organization (WHO).
  • What: to develop a network of laboratories in the 22 countries with the expertise to identify the stains of Ebola strategy and an action plan to cope with the outbreak and train all medical officers in the countries. Who: the health authorities of these 22 countries.
  • What: in case of an outbreak, to have international African missions made up of African medical staffs to be deployed in order to build capacity and show continental solidarity. Who: this could be done under the patronage of the African Union.

The post-Western African Ebola outbreak era could be used to promote African solutions to African matters with the support of any willing international actors via their development agencies and support via the World Health Organization (WHO).

It is important to highlight the fact there is a lot of know-how in Africa about how to deal with that matter.

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